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The Reform UK leader portrays his Reform UK party as a distinct occurrence that has burst on to the global stage, its rapid ascent an exceptional historic moment. However this week, in every one of Europe’s major countries and from the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia to the US and Argentina, hard-right, anti-immigrant, anti-globalisation parties like his are also ahead in the opinion polls.

In last Saturday’s Czech elections, the conservative, pro-Russian leader a prominent figure overthrew the head of government Petr Fiala. National Rally, which has just forced the resignation of yet another France's leader, is ahead the polls for both the French presidency and the legislature. In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is currently the most popular party. A Hungarian political force, Slovakia's governing alliance and the Italian political group are already in government, while the Austrian FPÖ, the Netherlands’ Freedom party (PVV) and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang – all hardline nationalists – are part of an global alliance of anti-internationalists, motivated by far-right propagandists such as a well-known figure, seeking to overthrow the global legal order, weaken human rights and undermine multilateral cooperation.

Rise of Populist Nationalism

This nationalist wave exposes a recent undeniable reality that supporters of democracy ignore at our peril: an nationalist ideology – once thought defeated with the Berlin Wall – has replaced neoliberalism as the leading belief system of our age, giving us a world of priorities: “America first”, “Indian focus”, “Chinese emphasis”, “Russia first”, “my tribe first” and often “exclusive group focus” regimes. It is this nationalist sentiment that helps explain why the world is now composed of 91 autocracies and only 88 democracies, and ethnic nationalism is the force behind the violations of global human rights standards not just by Russia in Ukraine but in almost every instance of global strife.

Root Causes Explained

Crucial to grasp the root causes, widespread globally, that have fuelled this new age of nationalism. It begins with a widely felt sense that a globalization that was open but not inclusive has been a free for all that has not been fair to all.

Over the past ten years, leaders have not only been delayed in addressing to the many people who feel excluded and left behind, but also to the changing balance of global economic power, transitioning from a unipolar world once led by the US to a multipolar world of rival major nations, and from a system of international law to a power-based one. The nationalist ideology that this has incited means open commerce is giving way to protectionism. Where market forces used to drive politics, the nationalist agendas is now driving economic decisions, and already more than 100 countries are running mercantilist policies marked out by bringing production home and ally-focused trade and by restrictions on cross-border trade, investment and knowledge sharing, sinking global collaboration to its weakest point since 1945.

Optimism in Public Opinion

But all is not lost. The situation is not fixed, and even as it solidifies we can see optimism in the pragmatism of the world's population. In a poll conducted for a prominent organization, of thousands of individuals in dozens of nations we find a significant portion are more resistant to an exclusionary nationalism and more willing to embrace global teamwork than many of the leaders who govern them.

Across the world there is, maybe unexpectedly, only a small group of hardened anti-internationalists representing a minority of the world's people (even if a quarter in the United States currently) who either feel peaceful living between ethnic and religious groups is unattainable or have a zero-sum mindset that if they or their nation do well, it has to be at the cost of others doing badly.

However there are another 21% at the opposite extreme, whom we might call committed internationalists, who either still see cooperation across borders through free commerce as a mutually beneficial arrangement, or are what a prominent philosopher calls “rooted cosmopolitans”.

Worldwide Public Position

The vast majority of the world's citizens are somewhere in between: not isolated patriots, as “US priority” ideology would suggest, or all-in cosmopolitans. They are devoted to their country but don’t see the world as in a permanent conflict between the “our side” and the “others”, opponents permanently set apart from each other in an irreconcilable gap.

Do the majority in the middle prefer a obligation-light or a dutiful world? Are they willing to accept obligations beyond their garden gate or city wall? Yes, under certain conditions. A initial segment, about a fifth, will support humanitarian action to relieve suffering and are ready to act out of selflessness, backing disaster relief for disaster zones. Those we might call “good cause” cooperation advocates feel the pain of others and have faith in something larger than their own interests.

Another segment comprising a similar percentage are practical cooperators who want to know that any public funds for international development are used effectively. And there is a final category, roughly a fifth, personally motivated collaborators, who will endorse teamwork if they can see that it benefits them and their local areas, whether it be through ensuring them basic necessities or safety and stability.

Building a Cooperative Majority

Thus a clear majority can be constructed not just for humanitarian aid if money is well spent but also for international measures to deal with worldwide issues, like climate crisis and pandemic prevention, as long as this case is argued on grounds of enlightened self-interest, and if we emphasize the reciprocal benefits that flow to them and their own country. And thus for those who have long questioned whether we cooperate out of need or if we have a necessity for collaboration, the answer is each.

This willingness to cooperate across borders shows how we can turn back the anti-foreigner sentiment: we can overcome today’s negative, inward-looking and often forceful and controlling patriotic extremism that demonises newcomers, outsiders and “different groups” as long as we champion a optimistic, globally engaged and inclusive patriotism that responds to people’s desire to belong and connects to their everyday worries.

Tackling Key Issues

Although detailed surveys tell us that across the Western nations, illegal immigration is currently the top concern – and it's clear that it must promptly be managed effectively – the snapshots of opinion also tell us that the public are even more concerned about what is happening in their own lives and within their immediate neighborhoods. Last month, the UK Prime Minister gave an emotional speech about how what’s positive in the nation can overcome what’s negative, doing so precisely because in most developed nations, “broken” and “deteriorating” are the words people have for years most frequently used when asked about both our economy and society.

However, as the leader also pointed out, the far right is more interested in exploiting grievances than resolving issues. Nigel Farage praised a disastrous mini-budget as “an excellent fiscal policy” since 1986. But he would also implement a comparable strategy – what was planned – the biggest ever cuts in public services. The party's proposal to cut government expenditure by £275bn would not fix struggling areas but ravage them, create social division and wreck any spirit of solidarity. Under a hard-right regime, you will not be able to afford to be ill, impaired, poor or vulnerable. Every day from now on, and in every electoral district, Reform should be asked which medical facility, which educational institution and which public service will be the first to be reduced or shut down.

Risks and Solutions

“This ideology” is economic theory at its most cruel, more destructive even than monetarism, and spiteful far beyond austerity. What the public are telling us all over the Western world is that they want their governments to restore our financial systems and our communities. “The party” and its international partners should be exposed repeatedly for plans that would devastate both. And for those of us who believe our greatest achievements could be in the future, we can go beyond pointing out the party's contradictions by presenting a case for a improved nation that resonates not just to idealists, but to pragmatists, to personal benefit, and to the daily kindness of the nation's citizens.